Preventive Diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific
Author(s): Yanjun Guo & Li Fujian (ed.)
ISBN: 978-981-121-682-4
Publisher: World Scientific
Year: 2021
Reviewed by William J. Jones, Senior Lecturer of International Relations, Mahidol University International College, Thailand.
The edited volume brings together scholars across 12 chapters addressing the primary aim of the book; the need for mechanisms which allow for effect diplomacy of the preventative nature. The volume largely concentrates on potential and enduring regional security in Northeast Asia but also twins Southeast Asian states and institutions within the framework of past successes and possible pathways forward.
Clements and Ming in chapters 3 and 4 respectfully consider confidence building measures dating back to the 1990’s and the establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and its role in facilitating important dialogues and concrete measures to build confidence. This is seen through increased transparency by sharing of national threat assessments and high-level defense dialogue to build relationships and trust. Clements then Ming also highlights the role of the East Asian Summit and ASEAN ISIS as a facilitator of early stage diplomacy which is reminiscent of its role in helping to establish AICHR and other regional initiatives.
Kun and Ling delve into the role played by ASEAN, ASEAN Plus 3 and the ARF in facilitating multilateral dialogues both on traditional and non-traditional security threats. Kun tracks the different phases of preventive diplomacy, namely norm establishment and trust building in establishing the framework for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. Kun also demonstrates the successes of cross-national dialogue and dense cooperation on maritime security issues, counterterrorism and disaster management and emergency response. An interesting note which drawn in the success in establishing deeper cooperation in non-traditional security spheres such as counterterrorism and disaster management but the noted lack of concrete development on establishing a formal Code of Conduct for the South China Sea some 15 years after its inception. Ling skillfully tracks the historical evolution of ASEAN’s role in regional security affairs from its inception to the present and highlights a few important points which should be noted Namely, the fact that the oldest and only regional organization which handles such a wide breadth of security related issues is ASEAN and hence ASEAN’s ‘centrality’ or default organization for any likely future pan East Asian security cooperation. Furthermore, Ling points out correctly that any security cooperation facilitated by ASEAN is principally informed by its central principles located in the ASEAN Way. The ASEAN Way of doing business is based on consultation and consensus with the normative focus being grounded in non-legalistic, flexible and inclusive principles. These are considered both a strategic strength and weakness within the context of regional security. Strong in the sense it’s allows for wide and broad multilateral dialogue but weak in the nature of possible progress beyond confidence and trust building measures. This is not to downplay or denigrate any ASEAN based initiative but rather to make clear that it firmly within the norms and historical expectations and examples of any cooperation dealing with national security issues.
Hassan considers the possibility of conflict management within the framework of the ARF by pointing towards previous regional disputes the Korean Peninsula, South China Sea, Sulawesi Sea, Pedra Branca/Batu Putch, Preah Vihear and violent conflicts in Southern Thailand and Southern Philippines. He finds that without a regional organization dedicated to managing security issues these remarkably touchy flashpoints have not boiled over into all out conflict due to accessing the ICJ and national third country facilitation to mediate. Hassan concludes that without a stand-alone security organization geopolitical rivalry and superpower competition will dictate the terms of future security engagement and outcomes.
In chapter 10, a multi author chapter following Hassan tracks the increasing role of China in the larger regional milieu both in terms of strategic engagement and increased interaction. This is seen through China’s BRI which is twinned by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). They point to the greater role of China not just within the region writ large due to its infrastructure development but also China’s greater role in security operations globally and its increasingly vocal and active diplomacy at the international level. Increasing security and development role of the Chinese are evidenced in Afghanistan/Pakistan (AfPak) and other Central Asia nations.
This volume is highly informative for anyone who wishes to grasp an understanding of the complexity of security issues, security dynamics and institutional formats which diplomacy on security related matters in East Asia. The book provides historical grounding for understanding the dynamics of high-level security cooperation, its possibilities and importantly, its limitations. An unwritten understanding that comes through after reading the volume in its entirety is limbo which East Asia currently finds itself. Namely, this is going to be the regional of the world in the 21st century with the most intricate and dynamic security competition as the world moves out of the unipolar moment and back into multipolarity with ever increasing security competition between the United States and China. The lack of security organization in the region due to Cold War dynamics of the USA using a hub and spokes security policy in East Asia as opposed to the institutional formula used in Western Europe has left the region to essentially try and build its own institutions. The only viable one of course is ASEAN and its attendant suborganizations but herein lies the conundrum of the future of Asia Pacific and East Asian security. ASEAN is useful for dialogue but not for concrete tangible security deliverables. Combine the this with the fact that there is no regional hegemon in East Asia and coming intense security competition between the USA and China and only conclusion one can arrive at is; the future of East Asian security is unclear and the possibility of any preventive diplomacy initiatives that do not coincide with the Great Powers security interests are not likely to bear fruit. All of that said the volume provides good insight in the nature of security concerns and possible pathways that are open and could be critical in the future with great power rivalry on the horizon.